Autonomous Vehicles Part II: What Lies Ahead
05.25.2017
Joe Pobiner in Planning & Urban Design, Planning & Urban Design, Urban Planning, autonomous vehicles, driverless cars

CC image courtesy DimiTVP

In my previous post, Autonomous Vehicles Part I: The Future Is Here, I discussed the exciting autonomous technology that already surrounds us. However, there’s still a lot we can expect down the road.

Everyone talks about the hurdles that impede the adoption of driverless cars—regulatory approval, insurance liability and technology that isn’t quite foolproof (yet). But deployment of personal self-driving vehicles also faces some other “speed bumps”:

The Law of Diffusion of Innovation

One of the biggest (and least technological) hurdles is market acceptance. AAA estimates there are approximately 300 million registered vehicles in the U.S. today, with an average age of around 11 years old. Improved quality and increasing sale prices has resulted longer ownership. In a good year, U.S. car and truck sales can reach 15 million so it could take 20 years (or more) to completely replace all currently-registered vehicles. But it is not necessary to reach 100 percent market saturation.

In 1962, sociology professor Dr. Everett Rogers published Diffusion of Innovations, describing how new ideas or products are adopted by the public. This theory has been used for over 50 years by trend-spotters such as Malcolm Gladwell and Simon Sinek.

Dr. Rogers described adoption as a Bell curve divided into five classes – Innovators (2.5 percent), Early Adopters (13.5 percent); Early Majority (34 percent); Late Majority (34 percent); and Laggards (16 percent). The Law of Diffusion of Innovation proposes that once Innovators and Early Adopters embrace an innovation (they combine for only 16 percent of the market), a “tipping point” is reached and much of the remaining majority quickly follows. (There is always a small percentage that fails to adopt any innovation).

Consider how fast the smartphone and Facebook were adopted. Once they passed their respective tipping points, widespread acceptance quickly followed. If adoption of self-driving cars follows a similar pattern, it would take 48 million autonomous vehicles to equal 16 percent of market share. And since some analysts predict 10 million self-driving cars on U.S. roads by 2020, 48 million could come faster than you might think.

How Will Autonomous Cars Be Deployed?

There’s no easy answer, but every day the public seems becomes more comfortable with autonomous technology. From IWAs to hotel concierge robots to auto-piloted aircraft, we rely on autonomous technology as part of our daily routine.

While not self-driving (yet), Uber recently announced the formation of the on-demand Uber Elevate service. Small piloted (for now) VTOL (vertical take-off and landing) aircraft will cruise the skies of major metropolitan areas. In April 2017, Dubai and Dallas (!) were announced as the first two cities for this service, proposed to begin in 2020.

Back on the ground, deployment of recent technology may provide a clue as to how driverless cars are integrated on our roads:

So how can new self-driving cars integrate into our fleet of mostly human-controlled vehicles?

And what about parking? Until self-driving cars become truly “free range,” we’ll still need vehicle storage, but expect that to eventually decrease. That means a potential excess of parking spaces. How much?

Well, ask yourself this question: “How many parking spaces are in the US?” Surprisingly, there is no accurate count. Can’t Google Earth’s street-view cars collect this data? Since parking spaces are being constructed, removed, or relocated every day, it is a constantly moving target.

A frequently estimated number of US parking spaces is between 800 and 900 million. That’s around 10,500 square miles of parking (both surface lots and parking structures)—about the size of the state of Massachusetts! That’s a lot of parking, so if even a fraction of that supply is freed up, consider how many new opportunities will be available to cities, villages and suburbs alike.

Acres of current parking could be returned to green space or developed for new uses. Garages designed to be future-proofed can be revived as new buildings. On-street parking spaces might be reclaimed for pedestrians, cyclists or landscaped areas. The list is endless.

The introduction of the autonomous cars is just the beginning. As acceptance grows, as legal and insurance issues wane, and as technology inevitably improves, self-driving vehicles have the potential to positively disrupt our lives and remake our cities.

Now, about my flying car. . .

Joe Pobiner, FAICP, CNU-A, is a master planner and urban designer in Gensler's Dallas office. He specializes in applying responsible planning and urban design principles that strengthen the physical, natural, economic, and cultural frameworks of our rapidly urbanizing planet. Contact him at joe_pobiner@gensler.com.
Article originally appeared on architecture and design (http://www.gensleron.com/).
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